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Santos vs Mirassol Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 24 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 21:30

Santos

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWDW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Mirassol

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLDD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+15.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-14.9%0-22.6%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.3%1-19.9%1-25.2%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.4%2-19.9%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.3%3-16.7%3-23.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-15.3%4+-22.8%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.1% 54.1% 1.85 +1.9%

Draw 22.0% 30.3% 3.30 -16.4%

Away win 22.9% 25.6% 3.90 -6.4%

Over 2.5 62.6% 54.1% 1.85 +15.8%

Over 3.5 39.0% 31.3% 3.20 +24.8%

BTTS 60.3% 57.1% 1.75 +5.5%

Home O1.5 56.0% 54.6% 1.83 +2.5%

Away O1.5 33.7% 30.8% 3.25 +9.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 131 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob60.3%

H 55% / xG 2.0-1.1 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 9.9%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.4%

#4 1–0 9.3%

#5 1–2 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Santos2.0

Mirassol1.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.6% · O3.5 PROB 39.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SANTOS · PPG 1.50

MIRASSOL · PPG 0.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.96 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Santos (H) 55.1%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +1.9%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -16.4%

Mirassol (A) 22.9%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -6.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Santos face Mirassol in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Santos a 55% chance, the draw 22% and Mirassol 23%, so Santos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Santos and 1.1 for Mirassol (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Santos are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.50 for Mirassol. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +24.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Santos vs Mirassol Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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