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Chapecoense-sc vs Sao Paulo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 24 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 21:30

Chapecoense-sc

PPG 0.73 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDWL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Sao Paulo

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a clear edge.

+12.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-18.5%0-26.5%0-33.3%0-4+1.8%1 1-07.6%1-111.6%1-28.8%1-34.5%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.1%2-17.9%2-26.0%2-33.1%2-4+1.6%3 3-02.3%3-13.6%3-22.7%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.6%4+-21.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.4% 28.6% 3.50 +23.9%

Draw 24.6% 31.3% 3.20 -12.8%

Away win 40.0% 50.0% 2.00 -20.0%

Over 2.5 59.7% 47.6% 2.10 +25.4%

Over 3.5 36.6% 25.0% 4.00 +46.4%

BTTS 61.3% 54.6% 1.83 +12.2%

Home O1.5 37.8% 28.6% 3.50 +32.3%

Away O1.5 48.5% 47.6% 2.10 +1.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 131 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.3%

A 40% / xG 1.4-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 2–1 7.9%

#4 0–1 8.5%

#5 0–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chapecoense-sc1.4

Sao Paulo1.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CHAPECOENSE-SC · PPG 0.73

SAO PAULO · PPG 0.75

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.17 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Chapecoense-sc (H) 35.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +23.9%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -12.8%

Sao Paulo (A) 40.0%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -20.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chapecoense-sc face Sao Paulo in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chapecoense-sc a 35% chance, the draw 25% and Sao Paulo 40%, so Sao Paulo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Chapecoense-sc and 1.5 for Sao Paulo (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chapecoense-sc are averaging 0.73 points per game versus 0.75 for Sao Paulo. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +46.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Chapecoense-sc vs Sao Paulo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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