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Delfin SC vs Aucas Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 26 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 20:30

Delfin SC

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLW

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Aucas

PPG 1.58 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.9%0-115.4%0-27.0%0-32.1%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.7%1-113.3%1-26.1%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-06.4%2-15.8%2-22.6%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-01.8%3-11.7%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.5% 31.3% 3.20 +0.8%

Draw 32.8% 36.4% 2.75 -9.8%

Away win 35.7% 45.5% 2.20 -21.5%

Over 2.5 38.0% 40.0% 2.50 -5.0%

Over 3.5 20.6% 20.0% 5.00 +1.8%

BTTS 47.6% 48.8% 2.05 -2.4%

Home O1.5 30.6% 28.6% 3.50 +7.1%

Away O1.5 22.9% 38.2% 2.62 -24.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 121 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 14.8%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.6%

D 33% / xG 0.9-0.9 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.9%

#2 0–1✓ 15.4%

#3 1–1 13.3%

#4 1–0 14.7%

#5 0–2 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Delfin SC0.9

Aucas0.9

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.0% · O3.5 PROB 20.6%

Form & verdict PPG

DELFIN SC · PPG 1.50

AUCAS · PPG 1.58

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.04, combined xG 1.77 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Delfin SC (H) 31.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +0.8%

Draw 32.8%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -9.8%

Aucas (A) 35.7%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -21.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Delfin SC face Aucas in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Delfin SC a 32% chance, the draw 33% and Aucas 36%, so Aucas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Delfin SC and 0.9 for Aucas (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Delfin SC are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.58 for Aucas. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +7.1%. This match finished 0-1.

Delfin SC vs Aucas Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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