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Al Raed vs Al Orubah Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Wednesday, April 15, 2026

Al Raed

PPG 2.00 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Al Orubah

PPG 2.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a clear edge.

+12.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-14.8%0-23.3%0-31.5%0-4+0.7%1 1-06.9%1-19.5%1-26.5%1-33.0%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.9%2-19.4%2-26.5%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-04.5%3-16.2%3-24.3%3-31.9%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-14.9%4+-23.3%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.7% 50.0% 2.00 +3.4%

Draw 21.8% 29.4% 3.40 -25.9%

Away win 26.5% 30.8% 3.25 -13.9%

Over 2.5 65.1% 57.8% 1.73 +12.6%

Over 3.5 43.1% 35.7% 2.80 +20.7%

BTTS 64.3% 63.7% 1.57 +0.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 1.1%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob64.3%

H 52% / xG 2.0-1.4 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 6.9%

#4 2–0 6.9%

#5 1–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Raed2.0

Al Orubah1.4

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.1% · O3.5 PROB 43.1%

Form & verdict PPG

AL RAED · PPG 2.00

AL ORUBAH · PPG 2.07

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.00), Away EXCELLENT (2.07)

Win probability 1X2

Al Raed (H) 51.7%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +3.4%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -25.9%

Al Orubah (A) 26.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -13.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Raed face Al Orubah in Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 on Wednesday, April 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Raed a 52% chance, the draw 22% and Al Orubah 27%, so Al Raed are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Al Raed and 1.4 for Al Orubah (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Raed are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.07 for Al Orubah. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +20.7%. This match finished 0-1.

Al Raed vs Al Orubah Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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