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SSVg Velbert vs Dortmund B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - West

West - 29 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 17:30

SSVg Velbert

PPG 0.36 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Dortmund B

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home POOR (0.36)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-14.2%0-27.3%0-38.5%0-4+17.8%1 1-01.1%1-14.0%1-26.9%1-38.0%1-4+16.8%2 2-00.5%2-11.9%2-23.2%2-33.7%2-4+7.9%3 3-00.2%3-10.6%3-21.0%3-31.2%3-4+2.5%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.2%4+-20.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 6.2% — — —

Draw 9.9% — — —

Away win 83.9% — — —

Over 2.5 81.6% — — —

Over 3.5 64.2% — — —

BTTS 59.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -37.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 76%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)3.5 BTTS prob59.0%

A 84% / xG 0.9-3.5 / O2.5 82% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–3 8.5%

#2 1–3 8.0%

#3 0–4 7.3%

#4 0–2 7.3%

#5 1–4 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SSVg Velbert0.9

Dortmund B3.5

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 81.6% · O3.5 PROB 64.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SSVG VELBERT · PPG 0.36

DORTMUND B · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home POOR (0.36)

Win probability 1X2

SSVg Velbert (H) 6.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 9.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Dortmund B (A) 83.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

SSVg Velbert face Dortmund B in Germany - Regionalliga - West on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SSVg Velbert a 6% chance, the draw 10% and Dortmund B 84%, so Dortmund B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for SSVg Velbert and 3.5 for Dortmund B (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-3. There is a 82% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SSVg Velbert are averaging 0.36 points per game versus 2.00 for Dortmund B. This match finished 1-2.

SSVg Velbert vs Dortmund B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - West

Match Preview & Prediction

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