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Steinbach vs Schott Mainz Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Südwest - 30 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 17:00

Steinbach

PPG 1.36 · HOME

6 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Schott Mainz

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-11.6%0-21.3%0-30.7%0-4+0.4%1 1-02.8%1-14.7%1-23.9%1-32.1%1-4+1.3%2 2-04.3%2-17.1%2-25.8%2-33.2%2-4+1.9%3 3-04.3%3-17.1%3-25.9%3-33.2%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-06.9%4+-111.3%4+-29.3%4+-35.1%4+-4+3.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.3% — — —

Draw 15.9% — — —

Away win 18.7% — — —

Over 2.5 84.4% — — —

Over 3.5 68.5% — — —

BTTS 76.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 23%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 75%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-0

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob76.8%

H 65% / xG 3.0-1.6 / O2.5 84% / BTTS 77%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.1%

#2 2–1 7.1%

#3 3–2 5.9%

#4 2–2 5.8%

#5 4–1 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Steinbach3.0

Schott Mainz1.6

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 84.4% · O3.5 PROB 68.5%

Form & verdict PPG

STEINBACH · PPG 1.36

SCHOTT MAINZ · PPG 0.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.36) > Away POOR (0.86)

Win probability 1X2

Steinbach (H) 65.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 15.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Schott Mainz (A) 18.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Steinbach face Schott Mainz in Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Steinbach a 65% chance, the draw 16% and Schott Mainz 19%, so Steinbach are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Steinbach and 1.6 for Schott Mainz (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 84% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 77% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Steinbach are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 0.86 for Schott Mainz. This match finished 6-0.

Steinbach vs Schott Mainz Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Match Preview & Prediction

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