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Norrby IF vs Sandviken Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Matchday 20 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 15:00

Norrby IF

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLDL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Sandviken

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLDD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 57.2% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-17.6%0-24.9%0-32.1%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.1%1-111.7%1-27.6%1-33.2%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.0%2-19.0%2-25.8%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.6%3-14.6%3-23.0%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.5%4+-21.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.8% 43.5% 2.30 -1.6%

Draw 23.6% 30.8% 3.25 -14.0%

Away win 33.6% 38.2% 2.62 -12.0%

Over 2.5 53.9% 61.7% 1.62 -12.7%

Over 3.5 32.8% 40.0% 2.50 -18.0%

BTTS 57.2% 66.7% 1.50 -14.2%

Home O1.5 42.3% 52.4% 1.91 -19.2%

Away O1.5 37.3% 45.5% 2.20 -17.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 105 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob57.2%

H 43% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.7%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 7.6%

#4 1–0 9.1%

#5 2–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Norrby IF1.5

Sandviken1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

NORRBY IF · PPG 1.44

SANDVIKEN · PPG 0.89

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.25 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Norrby IF (H) 42.8%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -1.6%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -14.0%

Sandviken (A) 33.6%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -12.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Norrby IF face Sandviken in Sweden - Superettan on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Norrby IF a 43% chance, the draw 24% and Sandviken 34%, so Norrby IF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Norrby IF and 1.3 for Sandviken (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Norrby IF are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.89 for Sandviken. This match finished 1-1.

Norrby IF vs Sandviken Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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