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Hammarby FF vs Gais Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 18 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 14:30

Hammarby FF

PPG 2.44 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWWL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Gais

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLLW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-14.5%0-21.6%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.0%1-19.2%1-23.3%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.3%2-19.4%2-23.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.1%3-16.5%3-22.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-07.5%4+-15.3%4+-21.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.7% 73.5% 1.36 -13.4%

Draw 21.2% 21.7% 4.60 -1.5%

Away win 15.1% 15.4% 6.50 -1.1%

Over 2.5 53.9% 63.7% 1.57 -15.4%

Over 3.5 31.6% 42.0% 2.38 -24.8%

BTTS 49.1% 58.8% 1.70 -16.5%

Home O1.5 58.8% 69.4% 1.44 -15.3%

Away O1.5 17.9% 26.7% 3.75 -19.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.1%

H 64% / xG 2.1-0.7 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 13.3%

#2 1–0 13.0%

#3 1–1 9.2%

#4 2–1 9.4%

#5 3–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hammarby FF2.1

Gais0.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HAMMARBY FF · PPG 2.44

GAIS · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.34 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Hammarby FF (H) 63.7%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -13.4%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -1.5%

Gais (A) 15.1%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV -1.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hammarby FF face Gais in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hammarby FF a 64% chance, the draw 21% and Gais 15%, so Hammarby FF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Hammarby FF and 0.7 for Gais (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hammarby FF are averaging 2.44 points per game versus 1.00 for Gais. This match finished 2-0.

Hammarby FF vs Gais Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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