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IF Brommapojkarna vs Degerfors IF Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 18 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 14:30

IF Brommapojkarna

PPG 1.12 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Degerfors IF

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-17.0%0-23.5%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.5%1-111.6%1-25.9%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.6%2-19.6%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.3%3-15.4%3-22.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-13.2%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.9% 50.0% 2.00 -2.2%

Draw 24.2% 31.3% 3.20 -13.5%

Away win 26.9% 28.6% 3.50 -3.5%

Over 2.5 53.9% 54.1% 1.85 -0.3%

Over 3.5 31.6% 33.3% 3.00 -5.2%

BTTS 54.7% 58.8% 1.70 -7.0%

Home O1.5 48.2% 52.4% 1.91 -7.9%

Away O1.5 31.6% 36.4% 2.75 -13.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.7%

H 49% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–0 11.5%

#3 2–1 9.6%

#4 2–0✓ 9.6%

#5 0–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IF Brommapojkarna1.7

Degerfors IF1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

IF BROMMAPOJKARNA · PPG 1.12

DEGERFORS IF · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.66 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

IF Brommapojkarna (H) 48.9%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -2.2%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -13.5%

Degerfors IF (A) 26.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -3.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

IF Brommapojkarna face Degerfors IF in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IF Brommapojkarna a 49% chance, the draw 24% and Degerfors IF 27%, so IF Brommapojkarna are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for IF Brommapojkarna and 1.0 for Degerfors IF (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IF Brommapojkarna are averaging 1.12 points per game versus 1.00 for Degerfors IF. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +0.4%. This match finished 2-0.

IF Brommapojkarna vs Degerfors IF Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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