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Vasteras SK FK vs Kalmar FF Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 18 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 12:00

Vasteras SK FK

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLDW

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Kalmar FF

PPG 0.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a clear edge.

+10.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-14.8%0-23.0%0-31.2%0-4+0.5%1 1-07.8%1-19.7%1-26.0%1-32.5%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.9%2-19.7%2-26.0%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-05.3%3-16.5%3-24.0%3-31.7%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-15.2%4+-23.2%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.0% 38.5% 2.60 +30.0%

Draw 22.1% 31.3% 3.20 -17.6%

Away win 28.0% 40.0% 2.50 -18.0%

Over 2.5 63.1% 57.1% 1.75 +10.4%

Over 3.5 39.4% 36.4% 2.75 +8.3%

BTTS 61.3% 62.5% 1.60 -1.9%

Home O1.5 55.8% 44.4% 2.25 +25.6%

Away O1.5 37.3% 45.5% 2.20 -17.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.3%

H 50% / xG 2.0-1.2 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 1–2 6.0%

#4 2–0 7.9%

#5 3–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vasteras SK FK2.0

Kalmar FF1.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

VASTERAS SK FK · PPG 1.50

KALMAR FF · PPG 0.12

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.78 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Vasteras SK FK (H) 50.0%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +30.0%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -17.6%

Kalmar FF (A) 28.0%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -18.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vasteras SK FK face Kalmar FF in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vasteras SK FK a 50% chance, the draw 22% and Kalmar FF 28%, so Vasteras SK FK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Vasteras SK FK and 1.2 for Kalmar FF (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vasteras SK FK are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.12 for Kalmar FF. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +42.4%. This match finished 0-0.

Vasteras SK FK vs Kalmar FF Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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