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Al Faisaly vs Al Tai Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Wednesday, April 15, 2026

Al Faisaly

PPG 1.64 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Al Tai

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.2% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-15.0%0-22.9%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-08.8%1-110.0%1-25.7%1-32.1%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.7%2-19.9%2-25.6%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.7%3-16.5%3-23.7%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-15.1%4+-22.9%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.0% 54.6% 1.83 +4.3%

Draw 21.6% 29.4% 3.40 -26.6%

Away win 21.4% 25.6% 3.90 -16.5%

Over 2.5 60.2% 56.5% 1.77 +6.6%

Over 3.5 37.9% 34.7% 2.88 +9.2%

BTTS 58.5% 60.6% 1.65 -3.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 1.1%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob58.5%

H 57% / xG 2.0-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 1–0 8.8%

#4 2–0 8.7%

#5 3–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Faisaly2.0

Al Tai1.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.9%

Form & verdict PPG

AL FAISALY · PPG 1.64

AL TAI · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.64), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Al Faisaly (H) 57.0%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV +4.3%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -26.6%

Al Tai (A) 21.4%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -16.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Faisaly face Al Tai in Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 on Wednesday, April 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Faisaly a 57% chance, the draw 22% and Al Tai 21%, so Al Faisaly are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Al Faisaly and 1.1 for Al Tai (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Faisaly are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.50 for Al Tai. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +9.2%. This match finished 3-0.

Al Faisaly vs Al Tai Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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