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Jeddah vs Al Faisaly Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Regular Season - 30 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 16:25

Jeddah

PPG 0.86 · HOME

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Al Faisaly

PPG 2.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 68.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-111.3%0-212.1%0-38.7%0-4+7.6%1 1-04.2%1-19.0%1-29.7%1-36.9%1-4+6.1%2 2-01.7%2-13.6%2-23.9%2-32.8%2-4+2.4%3 3-00.4%3-11.0%3-21.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.7% 17.2% 5.80 -26.3%

Draw 19.0% 24.4% 4.10 -22.1%

Away win 68.3% 69.0% 1.45 -1.0%

Over 2.5 56.3% 58.8% 1.70 -4.3%

Over 3.5 33.9% 37.0% 2.70 -8.5%

BTTS 48.5% 57.1% 1.75 -15.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 1.1%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob48.5%

A 68% / xG 0.8-2.1 / O2.5 56% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 12.1%

#2 0–1 11.3%

#3 1–2 9.7%

#4 1–1 9.0%

#5 0–3 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jeddah0.8

Al Faisaly2.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.3% · O3.5 PROB 33.9%

Form & verdict PPG

JEDDAH · PPG 0.86

AL FAISALY · PPG 2.07

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.07) vs Home POOR (0.86)

Win probability 1X2

Jeddah (H) 12.7%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV -26.3%

Draw 19.0%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -22.1%

Al Faisaly (A) 68.3%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -1.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jeddah face Al Faisaly in Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jeddah a 13% chance, the draw 19% and Al Faisaly 68%, so Al Faisaly are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Jeddah and 2.1 for Al Faisaly (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jeddah are averaging 0.86 points per game versus 2.07 for Al Faisaly. This match finished 0-4.

Jeddah vs Al Faisaly Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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