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Werder Bremen W vs Wolfsburg W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Regular Season - 17 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 16:00

Werder Bremen W

PPG 2.40 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Wolfsburg W

PPG 2.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 81.2% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0% — a clear edge.

+17.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-13.8%0-25.8%0-35.9%0-4+9.4%1 1-01.7%1-15.1%1-27.8%1-37.9%1-4+12.6%2 2-01.1%2-13.4%2-25.2%2-35.3%2-4+8.5%3 3-00.5%3-11.5%3-22.3%3-32.4%3-4+3.8%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.7%4+-21.0%4+-31.1%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.9% 21.1% 4.75 -34.0%

Draw 14.7% 23.8% 4.20 -38.3%

Away win 71.5% 65.4% 1.53 +9.4%

Over 2.5 81.2% 69.0% 1.45 +17.7%

Over 3.5 63.6% 46.5% 2.15 +36.7%

BTTS 70.3% 66.7% 1.50 +5.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -6.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 75%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)3.0 BTTS prob70.3%

A 72% / xG 1.3-3.0 / O2.5 81% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3 7.9%

#2 1–2 7.8%

#3 1–4 6.0%

#4 0–3 5.9%

#5 0–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Werder Bremen W1.3

Wolfsburg W3.0

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 81.2% · O3.5 PROB 63.6%

Form & verdict PPG

WERDER BREMEN W · PPG 2.40

WOLFSBURG W · PPG 2.50

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.40), Away EXCELLENT (2.50)

Win probability 1X2

Werder Bremen W (H) 13.9%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -34.0%

Draw 14.7%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -38.3%

Wolfsburg W (A) 71.5%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV +9.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Werder Bremen W face Wolfsburg W in Germany - Frauen Bundesliga on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Werder Bremen W a 14% chance, the draw 15% and Wolfsburg W 72%, so Wolfsburg W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Werder Bremen W and 3.0 for Wolfsburg W (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 81% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Werder Bremen W are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 2.50 for Wolfsburg W. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +36.7%. This match finished 0-0.

Werder Bremen W vs Wolfsburg W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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