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Alta vs Naples Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 03:00

Alta

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Naples

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 61.6% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+23.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-14.2%0-21.5%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.5%1-18.9%1-23.1%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.3%2-19.4%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.4%3-16.6%3-22.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-08.2%4+-15.8%4+-22.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.6% 50.0% 2.00 +23.2%

Draw 21.3% 32.3% 3.10 -20.4%

Away win 17.1% 31.3% 3.20 -27.2%

Over 2.5 58.9% 57.8% 1.73 +1.9%

Over 3.5 35.8% 37.2% 2.69 -3.7%

BTTS 53.0% 63.7% 1.57 -16.8%

Home O1.5 59.6% 53.5% 1.87 +11.5%

Away O1.5 17.9% 38.9% 2.57 -32.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 0.6%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob53.0%

H 62% / xG 2.1-0.7 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.3%

#2 1–1 8.9%

#3 1–0 12.5%

#4 2–1 9.4%

#5 3–0 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alta2.1

Naples0.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.9% · O3.5 PROB 35.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ALTA · PPG 1.75

NAPLES · PPG 0.40

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.41 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Alta (H) 61.6%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +23.2%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -20.4%

Naples (A) 17.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -27.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alta face Naples in USA - USL League One on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alta a 62% chance, the draw 21% and Naples 17%, so Alta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Alta and 0.7 for Naples (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alta are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.40 for Naples. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +16.9%. This match finished 1-2.

Alta vs Naples Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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