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Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 03:00

Sacramento Republic

PPG 2.11 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWDD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Phoenix Rising

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWDW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-16.5%0-22.4%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.0%1-111.0%1-24.0%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.7%2-19.3%2-23.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.2%3-15.2%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-13.2%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.0% 55.6% 1.80 -4.6%

Draw 24.6% 29.4% 3.40 -9.8%

Away win 22.4% 26.7% 3.75 -9.6%

Over 2.5 49.4% 51.3% 1.95 -3.7%

Over 3.5 28.1% 29.4% 3.40 -2.7%

BTTS 47.6% 55.6% 1.80 -14.3%

Home O1.5 48.8% 54.6% 1.83 -10.7%

Away O1.5 17.9% 28.6% 3.50 -22.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 152 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -17.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.6%

H 53% / xG 1.7-0.7 / O2.5 49% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.0%

#2 1–1 11.0%

#3 2–0 12.7%

#4 0–0 8.9%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sacramento Republic1.7

Phoenix Rising0.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SACRAMENTO REPUBLIC · PPG 2.11

PHOENIX RISING · PPG 0.90

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.96 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sacramento Republic (H) 53.0%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -4.6%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -9.8%

Phoenix Rising (A) 22.4%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -9.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sacramento Republic face Phoenix Rising in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sacramento Republic a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Phoenix Rising 22%, so Sacramento Republic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Sacramento Republic and 0.7 for Phoenix Rising (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sacramento Republic are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 0.90 for Phoenix Rising. This match finished 2-2.

Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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