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Union Berlin W vs Bayern Munich W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Regular Season - 23 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 16:00

Union Berlin W

PPG 1.36 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Bayern Munich W

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 98.9% vs bookmaker-implied 89.3% — a clear edge.

+10.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.3%0-11.5%0-24.3%0-38.0%0-4+60.8%1 1-00.1%1-10.4%1-21.2%1-32.3%1-4+17.6%2 2-00.0%2-10.1%2-20.2%2-30.3%2-4+2.5%3 3-00.0%3-10.0%3-20.0%3-30.0%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 0.2% 6.7% 15.00 -97.0%

Draw 0.9% 14.7% 6.80 -93.9%

Away win 98.9% 89.3% 1.12 +10.8%

Over 2.5 93.4% 76.9% 1.30 +21.4%

Over 3.5 84.0% 56.5% 1.77 +48.7%

BTTS 25.0% 51.3% 1.95 -51.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -6.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 78%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)0.3 xG (away)5.6 BTTS prob25.0%

A 99% / xG 0.3-5.6 / O2.5 93% / NoBTTS 25%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–5 12.7%

#2 0–4 11.3%

#3 0–3 8.0%

#4 0–2 4.3%

#5 1–5 3.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Union Berlin W0.3

Bayern Munich W5.6

COMBINED 5.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 93.4% · O3.5 PROB 84.0%

Form & verdict PPG

UNION BERLIN W · PPG 1.36

BAYERN MUNICH W · PPG 3.00

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.36)

Win probability 1X2

Union Berlin W (H) 0.2%

ODDS 15.00 · IMPLIED 6.7% EV -97.0%

Draw 0.9%

ODDS 6.80 · IMPLIED 14.7% EV -93.9%

Bayern Munich W (A) 98.9%

ODDS 1.12 · IMPLIED 89.3% EV +10.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Union Berlin W face Bayern Munich W in Germany - Frauen Bundesliga on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Union Berlin W a 0% chance, the draw 1% and Bayern Munich W 99%, so Bayern Munich W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.3 for Union Berlin W and 5.6 for Bayern Munich W (5.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-5. There is a 93% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 25% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Union Berlin W are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 3.00 for Bayern Munich W. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +48.7%. This match finished 2-3.

Union Berlin W vs Bayern Munich W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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