Today / USA - USL Championship / Orange County SC vs FC Tulsa

Orange County SC vs FC Tulsa Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 02:00

Orange County SC

PPG 1.56 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLD

1 – 5

FULL TIME

FC Tulsa

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-19.3%0-24.1%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.5%1-112.7%1-25.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.9%2-18.7%2-23.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.5%3-14.0%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-11.8%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 40.8% 2.45 +13.9%

Draw 26.5% 32.3% 3.10 -10.7%

Away win 27.0% 40.0% 2.50 -19.5%

Over 2.5 44.8% 51.3% 1.95 -12.6%

Over 3.5 27.0% 29.4% 3.40 -4.9%

BTTS 49.1% 57.1% 1.75 -14.1%

Home O1.5 37.8% 42.0% 2.38 -10.0%

Away O1.5 22.8% 38.2% 2.62 -24.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 152 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -17.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-5

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.1%

H 46% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.5%

#2 1–1 12.7%

#3 0–0 10.6%

#4 2–0 9.9%

#5 0–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orange County SC1.4

FC Tulsa0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ORANGE COUNTY SC · PPG 1.56

FC TULSA · PPG 1.38

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.49, combined xG 2.25 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Orange County SC (H) 46.5%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +13.9%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -10.7%

FC Tulsa (A) 27.0%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -19.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orange County SC face FC Tulsa in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orange County SC a 47% chance, the draw 27% and FC Tulsa 27%, so Orange County SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Orange County SC and 0.9 for FC Tulsa (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orange County SC are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.38 for FC Tulsa. This match finished 1-5.

Orange County SC vs FC Tulsa Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - USL Championship Predictions