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Spokane Velocity vs Greenville Triumph Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 01:30

Spokane Velocity

PPG 2.25 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLWW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Greenville Triumph

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDLW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+14.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-14.2%0-21.5%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.6%1-18.9%1-23.2%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.3%2-19.4%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.4%3-16.6%3-22.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-08.1%4+-15.7%4+-22.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.7% 55.6% 1.80 +14.7%

Draw 21.2% 30.3% 3.30 -18.0%

Away win 15.1% 27.8% 3.60 -27.4%

Over 2.5 53.9% 57.1% 1.75 -5.7%

Over 3.5 32.7% 38.2% 2.62 -14.3%

BTTS 51.8% 62.5% 1.60 -17.1%

Home O1.5 59.6% 57.5% 1.74 +3.7%

Away O1.5 17.9% 35.2% 2.84 -29.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 0.6%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob51.8%

H 64% / xG 2.1-0.7 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.3%

#2 1–0 12.6%

#3 1–1 8.9%

#4 2–1✓ 9.4%

#5 3–0 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Spokane Velocity2.1

Greenville Triumph0.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SPOKANE VELOCITY · PPG 2.25

GREENVILLE TRIUMPH · PPG 0.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.40 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Spokane Velocity (H) 63.7%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV +14.7%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -18.0%

Greenville Triumph (A) 15.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -27.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Spokane Velocity face Greenville Triumph in USA - USL League One on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Spokane Velocity a 64% chance, the draw 21% and Greenville Triumph 15%, so Spokane Velocity are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Spokane Velocity and 0.7 for Greenville Triumph (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Spokane Velocity are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 0.50 for Greenville Triumph. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +5.6%. This match finished 2-1.

Spokane Velocity vs Greenville Triumph Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - USL League One Predictions