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Al Batin vs Al Arabi Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Wednesday, April 15, 2026

Al Batin

PPG 0.62 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Al Arabi

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 60.2% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a clear edge.

+23.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.5%0-17.1%0-22.0%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.9%1-110.8%1-23.1%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.2%2-18.1%2-22.3%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.1%3-14.1%3-21.2%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-12.1%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.2% 48.8% 2.05 +23.4%

Draw 25.8% 29.9% 3.35 -13.6%

Away win 13.9% 32.3% 3.10 -56.9%

Over 2.5 34.5% 56.5% 1.77 -38.9%

Over 3.5 15.7% 34.5% 2.90 -54.5%

BTTS 33.9% 62.5% 1.60 -45.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 1.1%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob33.9%

H 60% / xG 1.5-0.6 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 34%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.9%

#2 2–0 14.2%

#3 0–0 12.5%

#4 1–1 10.8%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Batin1.5

Al Arabi0.6

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.5% · O3.5 PROB 15.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AL BATIN · PPG 0.62

AL ARABI · PPG 0.43

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.62), Away POOR (0.43)

Win probability 1X2

Al Batin (H) 60.2%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +23.4%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -13.6%

Al Arabi (A) 13.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -56.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Batin face Al Arabi in Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 on Wednesday, April 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Batin a 60% chance, the draw 26% and Al Arabi 14%, so Al Batin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Al Batin and 0.6 for Al Arabi (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 34% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Batin are averaging 0.62 points per game versus 0.43 for Al Arabi. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +23.4%. This match finished 3-1.

Al Batin vs Al Arabi Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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