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Colorado Springs vs El Paso Locomotive Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 01:00

Colorado Springs logo
Colorado Springs
PPG 2.00 · HOME
LAST 5
DWLLW
0 – 1
FULL TIME
✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5
El Paso Locomotive logo
El Paso Locomotive
PPG 1.55 · AWAY
LAST 5
WWWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 62.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+12.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗
ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-15.4%0-23.9%0-31.9%0-4+0.9%1 1-06.9%1-19.9%1-27.2%1-33.4%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.4%2-19.2%2-26.6%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-03.9%3-15.6%3-24.1%3-32.0%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-14.0%4+-22.8%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.7%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 43.9% 50.0% 2.00 -12.2%
Draw 22.0% 30.8% 3.25 -17.1%
Away win 34.1% 30.3% 3.30 +12.5%
Over 2.5 62.6% 55.6% 1.80 +12.7%
Over 3.5 39.4% 36.4% 2.75 +8.3%
BTTS 61.3% 61.7% 1.62 -0.7%
Home O1.5 54.9% 52.4% 1.91 +4.9%
Away O1.5 41.2% 38.2% 2.62 +7.9%

League track record

Based on 152 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%
O2.5 46%
BTTS 53%
Score Hit 47%
ROI -17.0%
Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 0-1
xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.3%

H 44% / xG 1.8-1.4 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%
#2 2–1 9.2%
#3 1–2 7.2%
#4 2–0 6.4%
#5 2–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Colorado Springs1.8
El Paso Locomotive1.4

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.6% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

COLORADO SPRINGS · PPG 2.00

EL PASO LOCOMOTIVE · PPG 1.55

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value
60%
BALANCED

xG gap +0.40 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Colorado Springs (H) 43.9%
ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -12.2%
Draw 22.0%
ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -17.1%
El Paso Locomotive (A) 34.1%
ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +12.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Colorado Springs face El Paso Locomotive in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Colorado Springs a 44% chance, the draw 22% and El Paso Locomotive 34%, so Colorado Springs are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Colorado Springs and 1.4 for El Paso Locomotive (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Colorado Springs are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.55 for El Paso Locomotive. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +16.1%. This match finished 0-1.

PredictVantage

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