Today / USA - USL Championship / Colorado Springs vs El Paso Locomotive
Colorado Springs vs El Paso Locomotive Prediction— USA - USL Championship
Group Stage ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 01:00
// Model verdict
Over 2.5
Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 62.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
League track record ↗
Based on 152 resolved predictions
Correct score prediction
H 44% / xG 1.8-1.4 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 61%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.6% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%
Form & verdict
COLORADO SPRINGS · PPG 2.00
EL PASO LOCOMOTIVE · PPG 1.55
xG gap +0.40 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
Colorado Springs face El Paso Locomotive in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Colorado Springs a 44% chance, the draw 22% and El Paso Locomotive 34%, so Colorado Springs are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Colorado Springs and 1.4 for El Paso Locomotive (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Colorado Springs are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.55 for El Paso Locomotive. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +16.1%. This match finished 0-1.