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Barcelona SC vs Orense SC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 26 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 00:00

Barcelona SC

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDWL

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Orense SC

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWLL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-16.2%0-22.5%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.7%1-110.9%1-24.3%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.0%2-19.6%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.0%3-15.6%3-22.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-13.6%4+-21.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.7% 54.1% 1.85 -2.5%

Draw 24.5% 33.3% 3.00 -15.9%

Away win 22.8% 26.3% 3.80 -8.0%

Over 2.5 50.2% 46.5% 2.15 +7.9%

Over 3.5 28.4% 25.0% 4.00 +8.2%

BTTS 49.8% 54.1% 1.85 -7.9%

Home O1.5 48.8% 47.6% 2.10 +2.5%

Away O1.5 22.5% 26.7% 3.75 -9.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 121 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 14.8%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.8%

H 53% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 1–0 13.7%

#3 2–0 12.0%

#4 0–0 7.8%

#5 2–1 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Barcelona SC1.8

Orense SC0.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

BARCELONA SC · PPG 2.00

ORENSE SC · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.96 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Barcelona SC (H) 52.7%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -2.5%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -15.9%

Orense SC (A) 22.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -8.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Barcelona SC face Orense SC in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Barcelona SC a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Orense SC 23%, so Barcelona SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Barcelona SC and 0.8 for Orense SC (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Barcelona SC are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Orense SC. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +15.6%. This match finished 3-0.

Barcelona SC vs Orense SC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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