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Birmingham Legion vs Sporting JAX Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 00:00

Birmingham Legion

PPG 1.10 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLL

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Sporting JAX

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLWL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 64.8% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-14.1%0-21.8%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.4%1-19.0%1-23.9%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.3%2-19.8%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.2%3-17.1%3-23.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-07.4%4+-16.4%4+-22.8%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.0% 64.5% 1.55 -5.5%

Draw 21.2% 25.0% 4.00 -9.1%

Away win 17.8% 22.2% 4.50 -11.9%

Over 2.5 59.7% 69.4% 1.44 -14.0%

Over 3.5 36.6% 47.6% 2.10 -23.1%

BTTS 53.5% 65.4% 1.53 -18.1%

Home O1.5 64.8% 66.7% 1.50 -2.8%

Away O1.5 22.8% 36.4% 2.75 -22.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 152 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -17.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.5%

H 61% / xG 2.2-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.3%

#2 1–1 9.0%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 3–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Birmingham Legion2.2

Sporting JAX0.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BIRMINGHAM LEGION · PPG 1.10

SPORTING JAX · PPG 0.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.31 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Birmingham Legion (H) 61.0%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -5.5%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -9.1%

Sporting JAX (A) 17.8%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -11.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Birmingham Legion face Sporting JAX in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Birmingham Legion a 61% chance, the draw 21% and Sporting JAX 18%, so Birmingham Legion are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Birmingham Legion and 0.9 for Sporting JAX (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Birmingham Legion are averaging 1.10 points per game versus 0.20 for Sporting JAX. This match finished 2-3.

Birmingham Legion vs Sporting JAX Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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