Today / Denmark - 1. Division / Hobro vs HB Koge

Hobro vs HB Koge Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Relegation Group - 26 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 16:00

Hobro

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

HB Koge

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 56.1% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-16.7%0-23.9%0-31.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.7%1-111.3%1-26.6%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.2%2-19.6%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.6%3-15.4%3-23.1%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-13.3%4+-21.9%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.4% 51.5% 1.94 -4.2%

Draw 24.1% 29.4% 3.40 -18.1%

Away win 26.5% 28.2% 3.55 -5.9%

Over 2.5 54.3% 54.1% 1.85 +0.5%

Over 3.5 32.0% 32.3% 3.10 -0.8%

BTTS 56.1% 59.9% 1.67 -6.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob56.1%

H 49% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 1–0 9.7%

#3 2–1 9.6%

#4 2–0 8.2%

#5 0–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hobro1.7

HB Koge1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.3% · O3.5 PROB 32.0%

Form & verdict PPG

HOBRO · PPG 1.00

HB KOGE · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Hobro (H) 49.4%

ODDS 1.94 · IMPLIED 51.5% EV -4.2%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -18.1%

HB Koge (A) 26.5%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -5.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hobro face HB Koge in Denmark - 1. Division on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hobro a 49% chance, the draw 24% and HB Koge 27%, so Hobro are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Hobro and 1.2 for HB Koge (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hobro are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.75 for HB Koge. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +0.5%. This match finished 1-2.

Hobro vs HB Koge Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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