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One Knoxville vs Boise Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 23:30

One Knoxville

PPG 1.82 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDDD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Boise

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWDW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+23.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-14.7%0-22.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.9%1-19.7%1-24.3%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.1%2-19.9%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.6%3-16.7%3-23.0%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.2%4+-15.5%4+-22.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.9% 45.5% 2.20 +23.0%

Draw 22.2% 32.3% 3.10 -18.7%

Away win 21.9% 35.7% 2.80 -23.2%

Over 2.5 57.3% 55.6% 1.80 +3.1%

Over 3.5 35.4% 38.2% 2.62 -7.2%

BTTS 54.3% 64.5% 1.55 -15.8%

Home O1.5 58.0% 50.8% 1.97 +14.3%

Away O1.5 22.8% 43.1% 2.32 -28.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 0.6%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.3%

H 56% / xG 2.0-0.9 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 2–0 11.1%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.9%

#5 3–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

One Knoxville2.0

Boise0.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.3% · O3.5 PROB 35.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ONE KNOXVILLE · PPG 1.82

BOISE · PPG 1.22

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.15 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

One Knoxville (H) 55.9%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +23.0%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -18.7%

Boise (A) 21.9%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -23.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

One Knoxville face Boise in USA - USL League One on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives One Knoxville a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Boise 22%, so One Knoxville are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for One Knoxville and 0.9 for Boise (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, One Knoxville are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.22 for Boise. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +15.2%. This match finished 2-2.

One Knoxville vs Boise Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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