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Rhode Island vs Monterey Bay Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 23:30

Rhode Island

PPG 1.78 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWL

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Monterey Bay

PPG 0.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDLD

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-13.8%0-21.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.3%1-18.5%1-23.2%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.6%2-19.5%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.4%3-17.0%3-22.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-08.9%4+-16.6%4+-22.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.8% 71.4% 1.40 -10.7%

Draw 21.0% 23.8% 4.20 -7.1%

Away win 15.2% 15.2% 6.60 +0.2%

Over 2.5 59.7% 61.7% 1.62 -3.3%

Over 3.5 36.6% 40.0% 2.50 -8.5%

BTTS 53.0% 58.8% 1.70 -9.9%

Home O1.5 65.1% 69.0% 1.45 -5.6%

Away O1.5 17.9% 26.7% 3.75 -19.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 152 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -17.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob53.0%

H 64% / xG 2.2-0.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.6%

#2 1–1 8.5%

#3 1–0 11.3%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 3–0 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rhode Island2.2

Monterey Bay0.7

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

RHODE ISLAND · PPG 1.78

MONTEREY BAY · PPG 0.27

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.49 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Rhode Island (H) 63.8%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -10.7%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -7.1%

Monterey Bay (A) 15.2%

ODDS 6.60 · IMPLIED 15.2% EV +0.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rhode Island face Monterey Bay in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rhode Island a 64% chance, the draw 21% and Monterey Bay 15%, so Rhode Island are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Rhode Island and 0.7 for Monterey Bay (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rhode Island are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 0.27 for Monterey Bay. This match finished 3-1.

Rhode Island vs Monterey Bay Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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