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Charleston Battery vs Miami FC Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Saturday, August 22, 2026, 23:30

Charleston Battery

PPG 2.56 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWW

UPCOMING

Miami FC

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-12.5%0-21.1%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-07.8%1-16.7%1-22.9%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.4%2-18.9%2-23.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.3%3-18.0%3-23.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-012.0%4+-110.3%4+-24.4%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.2% 71.4% 1.40 -4.5%

Draw 16.3% 21.7% 4.60 -15.0%

Away win 15.5% 16.7% 6.00 -4.2%

Over 2.5 64.7% 65.4% 1.53 -1.0%

Over 3.5 43.5% 42.6% 2.35 +2.2%

BTTS 54.7% 59.9% 1.67 -8.6%

Home O1.5 65.1% 71.4% 1.40 -8.9%

Away O1.5 22.8% 28.6% 3.50 -12.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 152 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -17.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.7%

H 68% / xG 2.7-0.9 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.4%

#2 3–0 9.3%

#3 2–1 8.9%

#4 1–1 6.7%

#5 3–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Charleston Battery2.7

Miami FC0.9

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.7% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CHARLESTON BATTERY · PPG 2.56

MIAMI FC · PPG 0.70

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.83 for Home, form 2.56 vs 0.70 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Charleston Battery (H) 68.2%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -4.5%

Draw 16.3%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -15.0%

Miami FC (A) 15.5%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -4.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Charleston Battery face Miami FC in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Charleston Battery a 68% chance, the draw 16% and Miami FC 16%, so Charleston Battery are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Charleston Battery and 0.9 for Miami FC (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Charleston Battery are averaging 2.56 points per game versus 0.70 for Miami FC. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +2.2%.

Charleston Battery vs Miami FC Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - USL Championship Predictions