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Cruzeiro vs Flamengo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 24 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 23:30

Cruzeiro

PPG 1.58 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Flamengo

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 58.3% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-19.5%0-27.6%0-34.1%0-4+2.3%1 1-07.2%1-111.6%1-29.3%1-35.0%1-4+2.9%2 2-04.4%2-17.1%2-25.7%2-33.0%2-4+1.8%3 3-01.8%3-12.9%3-22.3%3-31.2%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.6% 33.3% 3.00 -5.2%

Draw 24.5% 29.9% 3.35 -10.8%

Away win 43.9% 43.9% 2.28 +0.1%

Over 2.5 55.8% 50.0% 2.00 +11.6%

Over 3.5 34.8% 28.2% 3.55 +23.5%

BTTS 58.3% 56.5% 1.77 +3.2%

Home O1.5 33.1% 36.4% 2.75 -9.0%

Away O1.5 48.5% 44.4% 2.25 +9.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 131 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob58.3%

A 44% / xG 1.2-1.6 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 2–1✓ 7.1%

#4 0–1 9.5%

#5 0–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cruzeiro1.2

Flamengo1.6

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.8% · O3.5 PROB 34.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CRUZEIRO · PPG 1.58

FLAMENGO · PPG 2.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.38 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Cruzeiro (H) 31.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -5.2%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -10.8%

Flamengo (A) 43.9%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV +0.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cruzeiro face Flamengo in Brazil - Serie A on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cruzeiro a 32% chance, the draw 25% and Flamengo 44%, so Flamengo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Cruzeiro and 1.6 for Flamengo (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cruzeiro are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 2.00 for Flamengo. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +23.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Cruzeiro vs Flamengo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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