Today / Denmark - 1. Division / Aarhus Fremad vs Middelfart

Aarhus Fremad vs Middelfart Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Relegation Group - 26 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 16:00

Aarhus Fremad

PPG 1.58 · HOME

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Middelfart

PPG 0.42 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 79.8% vs bookmaker-implied 77.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-12.0%0-20.8%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-07.4%1-15.8%1-22.3%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.6%2-18.4%2-23.3%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.1%3-18.0%3-23.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-014.6%4+-111.6%4+-24.6%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 79.8% 77.5% 1.29 +2.9%

Draw 12.7% 21.5% 4.65 -40.9%

Away win 7.5% 10.2% 9.80 -26.5%

Over 2.5 70.8% 62.5% 1.60 +13.3%

Over 3.5 49.8% 40.0% 2.50 +24.5%

BTTS 51.6% 52.6% 1.90 -2.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 70%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.6%

H 80% / xG 2.9-0.8 / O2.5 71% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.6%

#2 3–0 10.1%

#3 2–1 8.4%

#4 3–1 8.0%

#5 1–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aarhus Fremad2.9

Middelfart0.8

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 70.8% · O3.5 PROB 49.8%

Form & verdict PPG

AARHUS FREMAD · PPG 1.58

MIDDELFART · PPG 0.42

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.58), Away POOR (0.42) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Aarhus Fremad (H) 79.8%

ODDS 1.29 · IMPLIED 77.5% EV +2.9%

Draw 12.7%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV -40.9%

Middelfart (A) 7.5%

ODDS 9.80 · IMPLIED 10.2% EV -26.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aarhus Fremad face Middelfart in Denmark - 1. Division on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aarhus Fremad a 80% chance, the draw 13% and Middelfart 8%, so Aarhus Fremad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Aarhus Fremad and 0.8 for Middelfart (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aarhus Fremad are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 0.42 for Middelfart. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +24.5%. This match finished 5-1.

Aarhus Fremad vs Middelfart Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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