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Guadalajara Chivas vs Club Tijuana Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Apertura · Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 23:07

Guadalajara Chivas

PPG 1.73 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWWD

5 – 2

FULL TIME

Club Tijuana

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.2%0-19.9%0-24.4%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.6%1-112.9%1-25.7%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.5%2-18.4%2-23.7%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.1%3-13.7%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.2% 67.1% 1.49 -32.6%

Draw 27.8% 23.3% 4.30 +11.7%

Away win 27.0% 16.1% 6.20 +40.4%

Over 2.5 42.7% 61.7% 1.62 -30.8%

Over 3.5 20.6% 39.2% 2.55 -28.5%

BTTS 47.6% 58.8% 1.70 -19.1%

Home O1.5 37.8% 66.7% 1.50 -43.3%

Away O1.5 22.8% 27.8% 3.60 -10.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -19.2%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.6%

H 45% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.6%

#2 1–1 12.9%

#3 0–0 11.2%

#4 2–0 9.5%

#5 0–1 9.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guadalajara Chivas1.3

Club Tijuana0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.6%

Form & verdict PPG

GUADALAJARA CHIVAS · PPG 1.73

CLUB TIJUANA · PPG 1.11

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.42, combined xG 2.19 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Guadalajara Chivas (H) 45.2%

ODDS 1.49 · IMPLIED 67.1% EV -32.6%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV +11.7%

Club Tijuana (A) 27.0%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV +40.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Guadalajara Chivas face Club Tijuana in Mexico - Liga MX on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guadalajara Chivas a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Club Tijuana 27%, so Guadalajara Chivas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Guadalajara Chivas and 0.9 for Club Tijuana (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guadalajara Chivas are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.11 for Club Tijuana. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +13.4%. This match finished 5-2.

Guadalajara Chivas vs Club Tijuana Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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