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Union Omaha vs Sarasota Paradise Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 23:00

Union Omaha

PPG 2.60 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDLD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Sarasota Paradise

PPG 0.45 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLWD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 74.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-12.2%0-20.7%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-09.6%1-16.0%1-21.9%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.1%2-18.1%2-22.5%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.8%3-17.4%3-22.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-015.6%4+-19.7%4+-23.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 74.1% 69.4% 1.44 +6.7%

Draw 17.3% 25.0% 4.00 -18.5%

Away win 8.5% 18.2% 5.50 -31.9%

Over 2.5 64.6% 63.7% 1.57 +1.4%

Over 3.5 43.5% 42.9% 2.33 +1.4%

BTTS 52.1% 59.9% 1.67 -13.0%

Home O1.5 65.1% 69.0% 1.45 -5.6%

Away O1.5 16.7% 28.6% 3.50 -24.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 0.6%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob52.1%

H 74% / xG 2.7-0.6 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.1%

#2 3–0 11.8%

#3 1–1✓ 6.0%

#4 1–0 9.6%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Union Omaha2.7

Sarasota Paradise0.6

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.6% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

UNION OMAHA · PPG 2.60

SARASOTA PARADISE · PPG 0.45

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.10 for Home, form 2.60 vs 0.45 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Union Omaha (H) 74.1%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV +6.7%

Draw 17.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -18.5%

Sarasota Paradise (A) 8.5%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV -31.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Union Omaha face Sarasota Paradise in USA - USL League One on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Union Omaha a 74% chance, the draw 17% and Sarasota Paradise 9%, so Union Omaha are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Union Omaha and 0.6 for Sarasota Paradise (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Union Omaha are averaging 2.60 points per game versus 0.45 for Sarasota Paradise. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +4.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Union Omaha vs Sarasota Paradise Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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