Today / USA - USL League One / Richmond Kickers vs Portland Hearts of Pine

Richmond Kickers vs Portland Hearts of Pine Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 23:00

Richmond Kickers

PPG 1.56 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLDL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Portland Hearts of Pine

PPG 0.91 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDDL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.1% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-17.0%0-24.5%0-31.9%0-4+0.8%1 1-08.9%1-111.4%1-27.3%1-33.1%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.2%2-19.3%2-25.9%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.9%3-15.0%3-23.2%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.9%4+-21.9%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.6% 43.5% 2.30 +7.2%

Draw 24.3% 28.6% 3.50 -9.0%

Away win 29.0% 40.8% 2.45 -17.4%

Over 2.5 59.7% 60.6% 1.65 -1.5%

Over 3.5 36.6% 41.3% 2.42 -11.4%

BTTS 61.1% 66.7% 1.50 -8.3%

Home O1.5 47.4% 50.5% 1.98 -6.2%

Away O1.5 37.3% 48.3% 2.07 -22.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 0.6%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.1%

H 47% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 2–0 7.2%

#4 1–0 8.9%

#5 1–2 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Richmond Kickers1.6

Portland Hearts of Pine1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

RICHMOND KICKERS · PPG 1.56

PORTLAND HEARTS OF PINE · PPG 0.91

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.35 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Richmond Kickers (H) 46.6%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +7.2%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.0%

Portland Hearts of Pine (A) 29.0%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -17.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Richmond Kickers face Portland Hearts of Pine in USA - USL League One on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Richmond Kickers a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Portland Hearts of Pine 29%, so Richmond Kickers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Richmond Kickers and 1.3 for Portland Hearts of Pine (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Richmond Kickers are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 0.91 for Portland Hearts of Pine. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +0.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Richmond Kickers vs Portland Hearts of Pine Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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