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Chattanooga Red Wolves vs NY Cosmos Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 23:00

Chattanooga Red Wolves

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLDL

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

NY Cosmos

PPG 0.30 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWDD

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 78.4% vs bookmaker-implied 61.3% — a clear edge.

+27.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-11.6%0-20.6%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-06.5%1-15.1%1-22.0%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.0%2-17.8%2-23.1%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.2%3-18.0%3-23.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-017.0%4+-113.3%4+-25.2%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.0% 59.9% 1.67 +13.6%

Draw 16.2% 27.8% 3.60 -25.0%

Away win 15.9% 25.0% 4.00 -21.8%

Over 2.5 67.3% 62.5% 1.60 +7.7%

Over 3.5 43.5% 39.1% 2.56 +11.4%

BTTS 54.7% 62.5% 1.60 -12.5%

Home O1.5 78.4% 61.3% 1.63 +27.8%

Away O1.5 20.3% 32.9% 3.04 -23.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 0.6%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)3.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob54.7%

H 68% / xG 3.1-0.8 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 10.2%

#2 2–0 10.0%

#3 1–1 5.1%

#4 3–1 8.0%

#5 4–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chattanooga Red Wolves3.1

NY Cosmos0.8

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CHATTANOOGA RED WOLVES · PPG 2.00

NY COSMOS · PPG 0.30

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.30 for Home, form 2.00 vs 0.30 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Chattanooga Red Wolves (H) 68.0%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV +13.6%

Draw 16.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -25.0%

NY Cosmos (A) 15.9%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -21.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chattanooga Red Wolves face NY Cosmos in USA - USL League One on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chattanooga Red Wolves a 68% chance, the draw 16% and NY Cosmos 16%, so Chattanooga Red Wolves are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.1 for Chattanooga Red Wolves and 0.8 for NY Cosmos (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chattanooga Red Wolves are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.30 for NY Cosmos. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +32.2%. This match finished 3-3.

Chattanooga Red Wolves vs NY Cosmos Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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