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Lexington vs Las Vegas Lights Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 23:00

Lexington

PPG 1.90 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWLL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Las Vegas Lights

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 54.9% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-15.4%0-23.0%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.3%1-110.4%1-25.8%1-32.1%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.9%2-19.9%2-25.5%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.6%3-16.3%3-23.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-14.6%4+-22.6%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.1% 64.5% 1.55 -20.8%

Draw 24.5% 25.3% 3.95 -1.9%

Away win 24.5% 19.6% 5.10 +15.0%

Over 2.5 53.9% 58.8% 1.70 -8.4%

Over 3.5 34.8% 36.4% 2.75 -4.3%

BTTS 54.7% 57.8% 1.73 -5.4%

Home O1.5 54.9% 63.7% 1.57 -13.8%

Away O1.5 35.6% 29.0% 3.45 +22.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 152 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -17.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.7%

H 51% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0✓ 8.9%

#4 1–0 9.3%

#5 1–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lexington1.9

Las Vegas Lights1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 34.8%

Form & verdict PPG

LEXINGTON · PPG 1.90

LAS VEGAS LIGHTS · PPG 1.30

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.79 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Lexington (H) 51.1%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -20.8%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -1.9%

Las Vegas Lights (A) 24.5%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +15.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lexington face Las Vegas Lights in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lexington a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Las Vegas Lights 25%, so Lexington are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Lexington and 1.1 for Las Vegas Lights (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lexington are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 1.30 for Las Vegas Lights. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +22.8%. This match finished 2-0.

Lexington vs Las Vegas Lights Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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