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Indy Eleven vs Louisville City Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 23:00

Indy Eleven

PPG 2.22 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Louisville City

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-15.2%0-23.2%0-31.3%0-4+0.6%1 1-08.0%1-110.0%1-26.3%1-32.6%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.8%2-19.7%2-26.0%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-05.0%3-16.2%3-23.9%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-14.7%4+-22.9%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.8% 32.3% 3.10 +54.4%

Draw 22.0% 28.2% 3.55 -13.1%

Away win 28.2% 50.0% 2.00 -26.2%

Over 2.5 63.1% 60.6% 1.65 +4.1%

Over 3.5 39.4% 38.2% 2.62 +3.2%

BTTS 61.3% 65.4% 1.53 -6.2%

Home O1.5 54.9% 42.6% 2.35 +29.0%

Away O1.5 37.3% 55.6% 1.80 -32.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 152 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -17.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.3%

H 50% / xG 1.9-1.2 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 2–1✓ 9.7%

#3 1–2 6.3%

#4 2–0 7.8%

#5 1–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Indy Eleven1.9

Louisville City1.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

INDY ELEVEN · PPG 2.22

LOUISVILLE CITY · PPG 1.40

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.68 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Indy Eleven (H) 49.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +54.4%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -13.1%

Louisville City (A) 28.2%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -26.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Indy Eleven face Louisville City in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Indy Eleven a 50% chance, the draw 22% and Louisville City 28%, so Indy Eleven are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Indy Eleven and 1.2 for Louisville City (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Indy Eleven are averaging 2.22 points per game versus 1.40 for Louisville City. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +69.1%. This match finished 2-1.

Indy Eleven vs Louisville City Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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