Today / USA - USL Championship / Detroit City vs Tampa Bay Rowdies

Detroit City vs Tampa Bay Rowdies Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 23:00

Detroit City

PPG 2.22 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDWD

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Tampa Bay Rowdies

PPG 2.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.7%0-112.5%0-26.1%0-32.0%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.8%1-113.5%1-26.6%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.5%2-17.3%2-23.6%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.7%3-12.6%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.9%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.0% 33.9% 2.95 +6.2%

Draw 28.4% 34.5% 2.90 -10.6%

Away win 35.6% 41.7% 2.40 -14.6%

Over 2.5 44.8% 47.6% 2.10 -5.9%

Over 3.5 27.3% 27.4% 3.65 -0.2%

BTTS 49.1% 57.8% 1.73 -15.1%

Home O1.5 30.6% 37.0% 2.70 -17.4%

Away O1.5 28.1% 42.6% 2.35 -20.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 152 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -17.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.1%

D 28% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–1 12.5%

#3 0–0 12.7%

#4 1–0✓ 13.8%

#5 1–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Detroit City1.1

Tampa Bay Rowdies1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.3%

Form & verdict PPG

DETROIT CITY · PPG 2.22

TAMPA BAY ROWDIES · PPG 2.40

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.10, combined xG 2.06 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Detroit City (H) 36.0%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV +6.2%

Draw 28.4%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -10.6%

Tampa Bay Rowdies (A) 35.6%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -14.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Detroit City face Tampa Bay Rowdies in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Detroit City a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Tampa Bay Rowdies 36%, so Detroit City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Detroit City and 1.0 for Tampa Bay Rowdies (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Detroit City are averaging 2.22 points per game versus 2.40 for Tampa Bay Rowdies. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +10.6%. This match finished 1-0.

Detroit City vs Tampa Bay Rowdies Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - USL Championship Predictions