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Kansas City W vs Seattle Reign FC W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 22:30

Kansas City W

PPG 2.56 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLDW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Seattle Reign FC W

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-15.1%0-22.6%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.7%1-110.1%1-25.2%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.6%2-110.0%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.3%3-16.6%3-23.4%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-15.1%4+-22.6%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.0% 56.5% 1.77 -6.2%

Draw 22.8% 27.0% 3.70 -9.4%

Away win 24.2% 26.7% 3.75 -5.5%

Over 2.5 59.7% 60.6% 1.65 -1.5%

Over 3.5 36.6% 38.5% 2.60 -4.8%

BTTS 54.7% 63.7% 1.57 -14.1%

Home O1.5 54.9% 59.9% 1.67 -8.3%

Away O1.5 32.4% 37.7% 2.65 -14.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -6.6%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.7%

H 53% / xG 2.0-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.1%

#2 2–1 10.0%

#3 2–0 9.6%

#4 1–0 9.7%

#5 1–2 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kansas City W2.0

Seattle Reign FC W1.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

KANSAS CITY W · PPG 2.56

SEATTLE REIGN FC W · PPG 1.30

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.94 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Kansas City W (H) 53.0%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -6.2%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -9.4%

Seattle Reign FC W (A) 24.2%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -5.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kansas City W face Seattle Reign FC W in USA - NWSL on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kansas City W a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Seattle Reign FC W 24%, so Kansas City W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Kansas City W and 1.0 for Seattle Reign FC W (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kansas City W are averaging 2.56 points per game versus 1.30 for Seattle Reign FC W. This match finished 1-1.

Kansas City W vs Seattle Reign FC W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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