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Loudoun United vs New Mexico United Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 22:30

Loudoun United

PPG 0.91 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDDL

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

New Mexico United

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-111.0%0-28.1%0-33.9%0-4+2.0%1 1-08.5%1-112.4%1-29.0%1-34.4%1-4+2.2%2 2-04.8%2-16.9%2-25.1%2-32.5%2-4+1.2%3 3-01.8%3-12.6%3-21.9%3-30.9%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.9% 46.5% 2.15 -21.4%

Draw 26.6% 29.4% 3.40 -5.7%

Away win 43.6% 33.3% 3.00 +30.8%

Over 2.5 50.2% 58.8% 1.70 -14.7%

Over 3.5 29.1% 38.2% 2.62 -14.2%

BTTS 53.0% 63.7% 1.57 -16.8%

Home O1.5 30.6% 50.0% 2.00 -38.8%

Away O1.5 41.2% 40.0% 2.50 +3.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 152 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -17.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob53.0%

A 44% / xG 1.1-1.5 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–1 11.0%

#3 1–2 9.0%

#4 0–0✓ 7.6%

#5 0–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Loudoun United1.1

New Mexico United1.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 29.1%

Form & verdict PPG

LOUDOUN UNITED · PPG 0.91

NEW MEXICO UNITED · PPG 1.62

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.34 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Loudoun United (H) 29.9%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -21.4%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -5.7%

New Mexico United (A) 43.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +30.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Loudoun United face New Mexico United in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Loudoun United a 30% chance, the draw 27% and New Mexico United 44%, so New Mexico United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Loudoun United and 1.5 for New Mexico United (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Loudoun United are averaging 0.91 points per game versus 1.62 for New Mexico United. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +8.3%. This match finished 0-0.

Loudoun United vs New Mexico United Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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