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Tecnico Universitario vs Guayaquil City FC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 26 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 21:30

Tecnico Universitario

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLWL

2 – 3

FULL TIME

Guayaquil City FC

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.0%0-112.5%0-25.5%0-31.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.1%1-113.4%1-26.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.1%2-17.2%2-23.2%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.9%3-12.6%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.9%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.9% 50.0% 2.00 -28.2%

Draw 28.6% 31.7% 3.15 -5.9%

Away win 35.5% 25.6% 3.90 +38.5%

Over 2.5 43.4% 40.8% 2.45 +6.3%

Over 3.5 25.2% 21.1% 4.75 +11.8%

BTTS 47.6% 48.8% 2.05 -2.4%

Home O1.5 30.6% 42.0% 2.38 -27.2%

Away O1.5 22.8% 25.0% 4.00 -5.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 121 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 14.8%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.6%

D 29% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 14.0%

#3 1–1 13.4%

#4 1–0 15.1%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tecnico Universitario1.1

Guayaquil City FC0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.4% · O3.5 PROB 25.2%

Form & verdict PPG

TECNICO UNIVERSITARIO · PPG 1.33

GUAYAQUIL CITY FC · PPG 1.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.19, combined xG 1.97 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Tecnico Universitario (H) 35.9%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -28.2%

Draw 28.6%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -5.9%

Guayaquil City FC (A) 35.5%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +38.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tecnico Universitario face Guayaquil City FC in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tecnico Universitario a 36% chance, the draw 29% and Guayaquil City FC 36%, so Tecnico Universitario are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Tecnico Universitario and 0.9 for Guayaquil City FC (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tecnico Universitario are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.00 for Guayaquil City FC. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +11.8%. This match finished 2-3.

Tecnico Universitario vs Guayaquil City FC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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