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Cobreloa vs Union Espanola Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 21:30

Cobreloa

PPG 2.60 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWLW

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Union Espanola

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+17.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-13.3%0-21.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.1%1-17.9%1-23.4%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.9%2-19.5%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.8%3-17.6%3-23.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-09.3%4+-18.1%4+-23.5%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.9% 52.4% 1.91 +16.3%

Draw 19.6% 28.6% 3.50 -18.8%

Away win 19.5% 29.9% 3.35 -20.8%

Over 2.5 60.4% 58.8% 1.70 +2.7%

Over 3.5 37.5% 36.4% 2.75 +3.1%

BTTS 54.7% 63.7% 1.57 -14.1%

Home O1.5 65.1% 55.6% 1.80 +17.2%

Away O1.5 22.8% 38.5% 2.60 -24.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 45%

ROI -26.8%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.7%

H 61% / xG 2.4-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.9%

#2 1–1 7.9%

#3 2–1 9.5%

#4 3–0 8.8%

#5 1–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cobreloa2.4

Union Espanola0.9

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

COBRELOA · PPG 2.60

UNION ESPANOLA · PPG 0.89

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.53 for Home, form 2.60 vs 0.89 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Cobreloa (H) 60.9%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +16.3%

Draw 19.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -18.8%

Union Espanola (A) 19.5%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -20.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cobreloa face Union Espanola in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cobreloa a 61% chance, the draw 20% and Union Espanola 20%, so Cobreloa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Cobreloa and 0.9 for Union Espanola (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cobreloa are averaging 2.60 points per game versus 0.89 for Union Espanola. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +41.4%. This match finished 0-1.

Cobreloa vs Union Espanola Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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