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Huachipato vs Deportes Limache Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Matchday 20 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 21:30

Huachipato

PPG 1.78 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLW

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Deportes Limache

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.8% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a clear edge.

+13.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-13.1%0-22.9%0-31.8%0-4+1.3%1 1-03.7%1-16.9%1-26.5%1-34.0%1-4+2.9%2 2-04.1%2-17.7%2-27.2%2-34.5%2-4+3.2%3 3-03.0%3-15.7%3-25.4%3-33.4%3-4+2.4%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-15.4%4+-25.0%4+-33.2%4+-4+2.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.9% 44.2% 2.26 -0.8%

Draw 21.4% 28.2% 3.55 -14.4%

Away win 34.7% 36.4% 2.75 -4.6%

Over 2.5 68.8% 60.6% 1.65 +13.5%

Over 3.5 48.1% 38.5% 2.60 +25.1%

BTTS 69.0% 66.7% 1.50 +3.5%

Home O1.5 65.1% 51.3% 1.95 +26.9%

Away O1.5 55.2% 45.5% 2.20 +21.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.6%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob69.0%

H 44% / xG 2.2-1.9 / O2.5 69% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 6.9%

#2 2–1 7.7%

#3 1–2 6.5%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 3–1 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Huachipato2.2

Deportes Limache1.9

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.8% · O3.5 PROB 48.1%

Form & verdict PPG

HUACHIPATO · PPG 1.78

DEPORTES LIMACHE · PPG 0.90

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.36 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Huachipato (H) 43.9%

ODDS 2.26 · IMPLIED 44.2% EV -0.8%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -14.4%

Deportes Limache (A) 34.7%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -4.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Huachipato face Deportes Limache in Chile - Primera División on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Huachipato a 44% chance, the draw 21% and Deportes Limache 35%, so Huachipato are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Huachipato and 1.9 for Deportes Limache (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Huachipato are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 0.90 for Deportes Limache. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +32.7%. This match finished 1-3.

Huachipato vs Deportes Limache Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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