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Internacional vs Atletico-MG Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 24 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 21:30

Internacional

PPG 1.08 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDDL

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Atletico-MG

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWDW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.7%0-110.7%0-25.3%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.2%1-113.2%1-26.6%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.2%2-18.2%2-24.1%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.4%3-13.4%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.4%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.3% 48.1% 2.08 -16.2%

Draw 27.9% 30.3% 3.30 -4.8%

Away win 31.9% 28.6% 3.50 +11.7%

Over 2.5 45.2% 50.0% 2.00 -9.6%

Over 3.5 27.4% 29.0% 3.45 -3.3%

BTTS 50.6% 57.1% 1.75 -11.5%

Home O1.5 33.9% 47.6% 2.10 -28.8%

Away O1.5 30.5% 33.3% 3.00 -8.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 132 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob50.6%

H 40% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 45% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 1–0 13.2%

#3 0–0✓ 10.7%

#4 0–1 10.7%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Internacional1.2

Atletico-MG1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.2% · O3.5 PROB 27.4%

Form & verdict PPG

INTERNACIONAL · PPG 1.08

ATLETICO-MG · PPG 1.08

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.24, combined xG 2.24 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Internacional (H) 40.3%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV -16.2%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -4.8%

Atletico-MG (A) 31.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +11.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Internacional face Atletico-MG in Brazil - Serie A on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Internacional a 40% chance, the draw 28% and Atletico-MG 32%, so Internacional are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Internacional and 1.0 for Atletico-MG (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Internacional are averaging 1.08 points per game versus 1.08 for Atletico-MG. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +0.4%. This match finished 0-0.

Internacional vs Atletico-MG Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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