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Juan Pablo II College vs ADT Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 6 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 20:30

Juan Pablo II College

PPG 1.18 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLWW

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

ADT

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-17.2%0-24.3%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.7%1-111.6%1-26.9%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.8%2-19.4%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.2%3-15.0%3-23.0%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.9%4+-21.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.3% 47.2% 2.12 -4.0%

Draw 25.7% 29.4% 3.40 -7.6%

Away win 29.0% 30.3% 3.30 -2.6%

Over 2.5 53.4% 52.6% 1.90 +1.5%

Over 3.5 31.1% 30.8% 3.25 +1.1%

BTTS 54.6% 58.8% 1.70 -7.2%

Home O1.5 47.4% 48.8% 2.05 -2.8%

Away O1.5 36.7% 35.7% 2.80 +2.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 110 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 9.2%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 45% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 9.7%

#4 2–0 7.8%

#5 1–2 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Juan Pablo II College1.6

ADT1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 31.1%

Form & verdict PPG

JUAN PABLO II COLLEGE · PPG 1.18

ADT · PPG 0.70

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.42 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Juan Pablo II College (H) 45.3%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV -4.0%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -7.6%

ADT (A) 29.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -2.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Juan Pablo II College face ADT in Peru - Primera División on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Juan Pablo II College a 45% chance, the draw 26% and ADT 29%, so Juan Pablo II College are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Juan Pablo II College and 1.2 for ADT (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Juan Pablo II College are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 0.70 for ADT. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +3.6%. This match finished 5-1.

Juan Pablo II College vs ADT Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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