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Varazdin vs Rijeka Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Regular Season - 31 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 15:45

Varazdin

PPG 1.73 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Rijeka

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-19.1%0-25.6%0-32.3%0-4+0.9%1 1-010.2%1-112.5%1-27.7%1-33.1%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.0%2-18.6%2-25.3%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.2%3-13.9%3-22.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.8%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.3% 38.2% 2.62 +5.6%

Draw 26.3% 32.3% 3.10 -18.5%

Away win 33.4% 38.8% 2.58 -13.8%

Over 2.5 48.1% 46.5% 2.15 +3.4%

Over 3.5 26.4% 25.3% 3.95 +4.3%

BTTS 52.7% 54.6% 1.83 -3.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 62%

ROI -26.8%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.7%

H 40% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–0✓ 10.2%

#3 0–1 9.1%

#4 2–1 8.6%

#5 1–2 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Varazdin1.4

Rijeka1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.1% · O3.5 PROB 26.4%

Form & verdict PPG

VARAZDIN · PPG 1.73

RIJEKA · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.73) > Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Varazdin (H) 40.3%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +5.6%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -18.5%

Rijeka (A) 33.4%

ODDS 2.58 · IMPLIED 38.8% EV -13.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Varazdin face Rijeka in Croatia - HNL on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Varazdin a 40% chance, the draw 26% and Rijeka 33%, so Varazdin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Varazdin and 1.2 for Rijeka (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Varazdin are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.13 for Rijeka. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +5.6%. This match finished 1-0.

Varazdin vs Rijeka Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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