Today / Ecuador - Liga Pro / Universidad Catolica vs Manta FC

Universidad Catolica vs Manta FC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 26 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 19:00

Universidad Catolica

PPG 2.17 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDWD

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Manta FC

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 71.4% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-13.1%0-20.7%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-016.0%1-16.8%1-21.4%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-017.6%2-17.4%2-21.6%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-012.9%3-15.5%3-21.2%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-011.8%4+-15.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.4% 76.9% 1.30 -7.2%

Draw 20.1% 21.1% 4.75 -2.7%

Away win 8.5% 9.3% 10.75 -5.2%

Over 2.5 53.9% 55.6% 1.80 -3.0%

Over 3.5 31.6% 33.3% 3.00 -5.2%

BTTS 43.6% 46.5% 2.15 -6.3%

Home O1.5 65.1% 67.6% 1.48 -3.6%

Away O1.5 11.1% 16.0% 6.25 -18.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 121 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 14.8%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob43.6%

H 71% / xG 2.2-0.4 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 17.6%

#2 1–0 16.0%

#3 3–0 12.9%

#4 0–0 7.3%

#5 1–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Universidad Catolica2.2

Manta FC0.4

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

UNIVERSIDAD CATOLICA · PPG 2.17

MANTA FC · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.77 for Home, form 2.17 vs 0.67 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Universidad Catolica (H) 71.4%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -7.2%

Draw 20.1%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -2.7%

Manta FC (A) 8.5%

ODDS 10.75 · IMPLIED 9.3% EV -5.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Universidad Catolica face Manta FC in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Universidad Catolica a 71% chance, the draw 20% and Manta FC 9%, so Universidad Catolica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Universidad Catolica and 0.4 for Manta FC (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Universidad Catolica are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 0.67 for Manta FC. This match finished 5-1.

Universidad Catolica vs Manta FC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ecuador - Liga Pro Predictions