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Fluminense vs Remo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 24 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 19:00

Fluminense

PPG 2.25 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWWD

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Remo

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-13.9%0-21.7%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.9%1-18.7%1-23.9%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.0%2-19.8%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.2%3-17.3%3-23.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-07.7%4+-16.8%4+-23.0%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.9% 71.4% 1.40 -21.7%

Draw 22.2% 23.3% 4.30 -2.7%

Away win 21.8% 12.2% 8.20 +47.3%

Over 2.5 59.7% 55.6% 1.80 +7.5%

Over 3.5 36.6% 33.3% 3.00 +9.8%

BTTS 54.7% 51.3% 1.95 +6.7%

Home O1.5 65.1% 64.5% 1.55 +0.9%

Away O1.5 22.8% 20.0% 5.00 +8.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 131 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.7%

H 56% / xG 2.2-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.7%

#2 2–0 11.0%

#3 2–1✓ 9.8%

#4 1–0 9.9%

#5 1–2 3.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fluminense2.2

Remo0.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

FLUMINENSE · PPG 2.25

REMO · PPG 0.75

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.35 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Fluminense (H) 55.9%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -21.7%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV -2.7%

Remo (A) 21.8%

ODDS 8.20 · IMPLIED 12.2% EV +47.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fluminense face Remo in Brazil - Serie A on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fluminense a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Remo 22%, so Fluminense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Fluminense and 0.9 for Remo (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fluminense are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 0.75 for Remo. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +43.7%. This match finished 2-1.

Fluminense vs Remo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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