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Al Kholood vs Al Taawon Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 16:10

Al Kholood

PPG 1.02 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDW ·

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Al Taawon

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDL ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 50.1% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-110.5%0-27.4%0-33.4%0-4+1.6%1 1-09.0%1-112.5%1-28.7%1-34.1%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.3%2-17.4%2-25.2%2-32.4%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.1%3-12.9%3-22.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.1%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.3% 32.3% 3.10 -3.0%

Draw 33.0% 29.0% 3.45 +13.9%

Away win 35.7% 46.5% 2.15 -23.3%

Over 2.5 50.1% 55.6% 1.80 -9.8%

Over 3.5 28.2% 33.3% 3.00 -9.2%

BTTS 50.2% 61.7% 1.62 -18.7%

Home O1.5 32.4% 39.2% 2.55 -17.4%

Away O1.5 41.2% 50.0% 2.00 -17.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -30.3%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob50.2%

D 33% / xG 1.2-1.4 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 7.5%

#3 1–2 8.7%

#4 0–1 10.5%

#5 2–1 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Kholood1.2

Al Taawon1.4

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.2%

Form & verdict PPG

AL KHOLOOD · PPG 1.02

AL TAAWON · PPG 1.56

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.21 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Al Kholood (H) 31.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -3.0%

Draw 33.0%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +13.9%

Al Taawon (A) 35.7%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -23.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Kholood face Al Taawon in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Kholood a 31% chance, the draw 33% and Al Taawon 36%, so Al Taawon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Al Kholood and 1.4 for Al Taawon (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Kholood are averaging 1.02 points per game versus 1.56 for Al Taawon. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +7.8%. This match finished 3-2.

Al Kholood vs Al Taawon Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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