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Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 15:45

Al-Fateh

PPG 1.48 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDD ·

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Al-Ettifaq

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLL ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-16.3%0-25.8%0-33.5%0-4+2.4%1 1-05.4%1-19.7%1-28.9%1-35.4%1-4+3.7%2 2-04.1%2-17.5%2-26.8%2-34.1%2-4+2.8%3 3-02.1%3-13.9%3-23.5%3-32.1%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-12.1%4+-21.9%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.9% 44.4% 2.25 -28.2%

Draw 24.3% 27.8% 3.60 -7.5%

Away win 43.8% 35.1% 2.85 +24.8%

Over 2.5 59.7% 64.5% 1.55 -7.5%

Over 3.5 36.9% 42.6% 2.35 -13.3%

BTTS 60.6% 69.4% 1.44 -12.7%

Home O1.5 42.8% 54.1% 1.85 -20.8%

Away O1.5 50.1% 47.6% 2.10 +5.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -30.3%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob60.6%

A 44% / xG 1.5-1.8 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 2–1 7.5%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 0–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al-Fateh1.5

Al-Ettifaq1.8

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.9%

Form & verdict PPG

AL-FATEH · PPG 1.48

AL-ETTIFAQ · PPG 1.40

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.28 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Al-Fateh (H) 31.9%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -28.2%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.5%

Al-Ettifaq (A) 43.8%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV +24.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al-Fateh face Al-Ettifaq in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al-Fateh a 32% chance, the draw 24% and Al-Ettifaq 44%, so Al-Ettifaq are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Al-Fateh and 1.8 for Al-Ettifaq (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al-Fateh are averaging 1.48 points per game versus 1.40 for Al-Ettifaq. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +30.4%. This match finished 0-1.

Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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