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Minija vs Kauno Žalgiris II Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Saturday, August 22, 2026, 15:00

Minija

PPG 3.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWWW

UPCOMING

Kauno Žalgiris II

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 78.4% vs bookmaker-implied 82.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-10.9%0-20.2%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-07.7%1-13.1%1-20.6%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-013.0%2-15.2%2-21.1%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-014.6%3-15.9%3-21.2%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-029.2%4+-111.8%4+-22.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 76.7% 84.7% 1.18 -9.5%

Draw 15.7% 13.3% 7.50 +10.7%

Away win 7.6% 10.5% 9.50 -16.7%

Over 2.5 67.3% 73.5% 1.36 -8.5%

Over 3.5 43.6% 48.1% 2.08 -9.3%

BTTS 46.3% 45.5% 2.20 +1.9%

Home O1.5 78.4% 82.6% 1.21 -5.1%

Away O1.5 11.1% 22.0% 4.55 -29.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 80 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -40.3%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 72%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.4 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob46.3%

H 77% / xG 3.4-0.4 / O2.5 67% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 14.6%

#2 2–0 13.0%

#3 4–0 12.4%

#4 1–1 3.1%

#5 5–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Minija3.4

Kauno Žalgiris II0.4

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MINIJA · PPG 3.00

KAUNO ŽALGIRIS II · PPG 0.40

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.98 for Home, form 3.00 vs 0.40 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Minija (H) 76.7%

ODDS 1.18 · IMPLIED 84.7% EV -9.5%

Draw 15.7%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV +10.7%

Kauno Žalgiris II (A) 7.6%

ODDS 9.50 · IMPLIED 10.5% EV -16.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Minija face Kauno Žalgiris II in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Minija a 77% chance, the draw 16% and Kauno Žalgiris II 8%, so Minija are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.4 for Minija and 0.4 for Kauno Žalgiris II (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Minija are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 0.40 for Kauno Žalgiris II. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +1.9%.

Minija vs Kauno Žalgiris II Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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