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Syrianska FC vs Smedby Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Södra Svealand · Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 15:00

Syrianska FC

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLDL

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Smedby

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-14.7%0-24.8%0-33.3%0-4+2.8%1 1-03.9%1-18.0%1-28.3%1-35.7%1-4+4.8%2 2-03.3%2-16.9%2-27.2%2-34.9%2-4+4.1%3 3-01.9%3-14.0%3-24.1%3-32.8%3-4+2.4%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-12.5%4+-22.6%4+-31.8%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.9% 32.3% 3.10 +2.0%

Draw 22.5% 26.7% 3.75 -9.4%

Away win 44.6% 52.4% 1.91 -14.8%

Over 2.5 67.3% 65.4% 1.53 +3.0%

Over 3.5 43.5% 44.4% 2.25 -2.1%

BTTS 63.2% 66.7% 1.50 -5.2%

Home O1.5 48.8% 47.4% 2.11 +3.0%

Away O1.5 55.9% 63.7% 1.57 -12.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob63.2%

A 45% / xG 1.7-2.1 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.0%

#2 1–2 8.3%

#3 2–1 6.9%

#4 2–2✓ 7.2%

#5 1–3 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Syrianska FC1.7

Smedby2.1

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SYRIANSKA FC · PPG 1.38

SMEDBY · PPG 1.38

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.35 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Syrianska FC (H) 32.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +2.0%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -9.4%

Smedby (A) 44.6%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -14.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Syrianska FC face Smedby in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Syrianska FC a 33% chance, the draw 23% and Smedby 45%, so Smedby are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Syrianska FC and 2.1 for Smedby (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Syrianska FC are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.38 for Smedby. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +22.5%. This match finished 2-2.

Syrianska FC vs Smedby Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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