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Vukovar vs Gorica Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Regular Season - 31 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 13:30

Vukovar

PPG 1.20 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Gorica

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.5% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-19.5%0-27.0%0-33.5%0-4+1.8%1 1-08.1%1-112.0%1-28.9%1-34.4%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.2%2-17.6%2-25.6%2-32.8%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.2%3-13.2%3-22.4%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.3%4+-21.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.5% 36.5% 2.74 -10.9%

Draw 25.4% 30.8% 3.25 -17.4%

Away win 42.1% 41.7% 2.40 +1.0%

Over 2.5 51.7% 51.8% 1.93 -0.2%

Over 3.5 29.6% 29.9% 3.35 -0.8%

BTTS 55.5% 59.9% 1.67 -7.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 62%

ROI -26.8%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob55.5%

A 42% / xG 1.3-1.5 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 0–1 9.5%

#3 1–2✓ 8.9%

#4 1–0 8.1%

#5 2–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vukovar1.3

Gorica1.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.7% · O3.5 PROB 29.6%

Form & verdict PPG

VUKOVAR · PPG 1.20

GORICA · PPG 0.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.20), Away POOR (0.93)

Win probability 1X2

Vukovar (H) 32.5%

ODDS 2.74 · IMPLIED 36.5% EV -10.9%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -17.4%

Gorica (A) 42.1%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +1.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vukovar face Gorica in Croatia - HNL on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vukovar a 33% chance, the draw 25% and Gorica 42%, so Gorica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Vukovar and 1.5 for Gorica (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vukovar are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.93 for Gorica. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +1.0%. This match finished 1-2.

Vukovar vs Gorica Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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